How Do You Know?

It’s said we can’t begin our journey to wisdom until we first recognize our ignorance.  Most of us have a very, very long road ahead.

While we know many things about the world around us, it’s also true that much of what we think we know is a mirage. We’re living life at full speed, making decisions on the basis of new data points and the instincts we’ve developed from countless experiences. When we hear something new, we know what it means, how to interpret it, how to handle it…..

Unless, of course, we don’t. Often, we begin to see a pattern after a few examples and then we interpret future events in the context of that small sample. Hundreds of events later, we might still be relying on our earliest conclusions as our filter, even though we would identify a very different pattern if we looked at our much-larger sample today.

Consider the way we collect insights. None of us has time to conduct independent research on every issue, so we rely on others as content experts and focus our energies on collecting only the insights we need for our decisions. In the daily race, though, we can make too large a leap in assuming we have actually collected insights at all.

Here’s a quick example that Marilyn Seymann and I included in The Governance Game, our book about corporate governance:

“How are we doing with the new distribution center in Indianapolis?” a director might ask.

“Quite well,” the CEO might reply. “Of course, it will be a while before our success shows up on the financials, but all the numbers are very positive.”

“Great,” the director says, convincing himself that he just learned something.

What just happened here? The CEO says he has numbers and the numbers are positive, but the numbers aren’t positive enough to be positive on the financial statements. So what kind of numbers are they? Perhaps the CEO really has numbers, or perhaps he has been promised numbers by the end of the week and, not wanting to seem uninformed, he tells the director he already has good insights. Perhaps the director is unsure about the CEO’s statement, but he doesn’t want to seem aggressive or doubtful, so he decides to let it lie.

Many things might have happened in this brief interchange. One thing that probably didn’t happen was an exchange of information.

 In the exchange above, as in many of our conversations, the most important source of information and insight is not the first question we ask, but the question that follows–or should follow–the response we receive. And the question that is often most valuable, and challenging, is, “How do you know?”

Consider a few of the claims that various friends and clients have offered recently:

• Our customers stay with us because of our service levels.
• We have a solid reputation for quality.
• Our employees are aligned with our strategic plan.
• We are making great progress with our new product rollout.

All of these statements made with self-assurance, but how do my friends know that the statements are true? Are they relying on general comments that could be interpreted in different ways, pronouncements from people who have a career stake in the answers, attaboys from two members of a golfing foursome or some other questionable source? Or, do they know because they’ve made a serious inquiry into the issue, measured the variables and learned the facts? Or, at the least, have they asked enough follow-up questions to test the veracity of the statements they’ve received?

Take a minute. Close the door to your office. Think about the statements you’ve made in the past two days. Think about the reports, updates and commentaries you’ve received from the people around you. Now, ask yourself these questions:

1. What do I believe our situation to be?
2. How do I know?

All of us labor under some number of misperceptions and unwarranted conclusions about our worlds. If you consider the questions above and get a bit unsettled by the answers, you’re absolutely normal. Normal, but still at risk.

It’s said that we can’t begin our journey to wisdom until we first recognize our ignorance.  Consider your journey just a bit shorter today.